The first half of 2025 ended with a clear recovery in investment activity in Poland’s commercial property sector. The total transaction volume reached €1.7 billion across 63 finalized deals, nearly half of which came from the logistics sector. Investors focused mainly on logistics assets and retail parks. Warehouses led the market, accounting for around 40 % of total capital. A notable example was the purchase of two Eko-Okna facilities by the U.S. REIT Realty Income.
Central and Eastern Europe Record
The €253 million deal set a new record for Central and Eastern Europe. Polish companies are increasingly taking advantage of buying opportunities amid attractive valuations and reduced activity from foreign funds. Domestic capital now accounts for about 14 % of total investment, with an average transaction size of €13 million. The market is shifting toward local investors, who are faster and more flexible than global players. Regional offices and urban “convenience” centers are gaining popularity due to their stability and manageable scale.
Stable Assets as a Safe Haven
Large office transactions remain limited. Investors prefer properties with stable cashflows in prime city locations. Top-class office buildings are appearing in both institutional and private portfolios. Polish investors now account for over one-third of total office transaction value, signaling growing professionalism and competitiveness. In retail, demand focuses on smaller retail parks and service centers with redevelopment potential. The convenience segment is particularly dynamic, supported by strong consumption and urbanization trends.
Trends and the Rise of Domestic Capital
Investment growth in Poland is underpinned by solid macroeconomic fundamentals. GDP grew by 3.4 % year-on-year in Q2 2025, and demand for commercial space remains strong. The logistics sector dominates with 40 % of market share – warehouse investments exceeded €690 million in H1 2025, more than double the previous year’s level. New warehouse supply reached 1.15 million m², while vacancy rates remained stable at 8.2 %.
Market Conditions: Offices and Retail
Office development remains concentrated in Warsaw’s central zones. Completions rose by 34 % year-on-year, though developers are reducing new supply. As a result, leasing activity strengthened and vacancy rates dropped in prime assets. In logistics, 56 % of leases signed in Q1 2025 were renewals, showing tenant caution in an uncertain economy.
Retail is recovering, with growing investor interest in new retail parks in mid-sized cities and convenience formats. The hotel sector is also expanding, particularly in the Warsaw metropolitan area. Analysts expect domestic investors to strengthen their position further, supported by favorable pricing and potential interest-rate cuts.
Forecast and Outlook
Experts predict total investment volumes in 2025 to exceed €4 billion – a return to pre-crisis levels. Key drivers include further interest-rate cuts in the eurozone, Poland’s steady GDP growth, and the expanding role of domestic capital.
The market is becoming more selective, with investors increasingly targeting assets offering redevelopment or efficiency-improvement potential. Professional portfolio management and asset optimization are essential to achieve above-average returns.
Future Outlook
According to PwC and leading consulting firms, 2026 will be a turning point for Poland’s commercial real estate market. Transaction volumes are expected to grow by 30–40 % year-on-year, reaching €5.5–6.0 billion. A major catalyst will be further NBP rate cuts – from 4.75 % to 4.25 % by 2026.
The data-center boom will play a major role in shaping the commercial market. The Polish data-center sector is expected to reach a value of PLN 6 billion by 2028, growing at 7.4 % annually. Major tech firms like Microsoft and Google continue expanding their facilities in Poland, strengthening the country’s position as a key hub for cloud services in Central and Eastern Europe.
A Maturing Market
Recent trends show Poland evolving into a mature, increasingly attractive market for private, family-owned, and institutional investors alike. Investment strategies are shifting toward properties with adaptive reuse or efficiency-upgrade potential. Above-average returns are becoming harder to achieve without diversification and active value creation. Professional management and portfolio optimization are now the decisive factors for long-term success.
