One report, two opposite pictures. Cushman & Wakefield’s H1 2026 update puts Frankfurt at 981 MW of live capacity, 1.65 per cent colocation vacancy and 411 MW under construction. Warsaw stands at 159 MW, 11.49 per cent vacancy and just 5 MW being built. The gap between the Frankfurt and Warsaw data centre markets is not a demand story. It is a power story, and it tells investors where pricing, timing and risk now sit in Germany and Poland.
One report, two markets
Cushman & Wakefield’s EMEA Data Centre Update for the first half of 2026 counts more than 12.1 GW of operational capacity across the region, up more than 36 per cent on Q2 2024, plus 3.8 GW under construction and 14.5 GW planned. The five FLAP-D hubs hold 43 per cent of live capacity but only 32 per cent of the pipeline.
Inside that aggregate, Frankfurt and Warsaw could hardly look more different. Frankfurt reached 981 MW at the end of Q2 2026, up 22 per cent year on year. Another 411 MW is under construction, roughly double the volume of a year earlier, and about 83 per cent of it is already pre-let. A further 1,267 MW is planned. Colocation vacancy is 1.65 per cent, or 15.95 MW.
Warsaw grew by 2 MW to 159 MW. Construction fell from 11 MW to 5 MW. The planned pipeline is 156 MW, with another 68 MW at an early stage that the report explicitly does not count as secured supply. Colocation, 84 per cent of the Warsaw market, shows a vacancy rate of 11.49 per cent, or 15.78 MW. Side by side, the two cities have almost the same amount of empty colocation space, about 16 MW each. But Frankfurt is more than six times larger and is building the equivalent of 42 per cent of its stock on top. Warsaw is building 3 per cent.
Frankfurt: demand without space
Frankfurt’s problem is not finding tenants. JLL’s EMEA mid-year report, which uses a different market definition, puts FLAP-D vacancy at 6.4 per cent with Frankfurt the tightest hub at 3.1 per cent, and finds that hyperscale campuses planned for 2026 to 2028 sit on average 175 km from the major hubs, against 46 km for projects delivered in 2022 to 2025. Capacity goes where power is.
The constraint shows in the cost of entry. According to a Kearney analysis published on 8 October 2026, powered land, meaning sites with a secured grid connection, costs about 2.25 to 2.30 million euros per megawatt in Germany and the other core Western European markets. Kearney names grid connections, permitting, land and local acceptance as the bottlenecks that could divert German demand, which its index expects to more than double by 2030. Bitkom and Borderstep count more than 1,800 MW of further projects announced for the Frankfurt region, while the federal grid connection package that would let operators weight project maturity is still in parliament.
Warsaw: space without power, power without demand
An 11.49 per cent vacancy rate in a market everyone describes as power-starved looks like a contradiction. It is not. The vacant space sits in existing colocation halls built for enterprise and cloud loads of a few megawatts. The demand queuing at the grid is different: AI and hyperscale campuses of tens or hundreds of megawatts, which the Warsaw distribution grid cannot supply. Kamil Żach, partner at Cushman & Wakefield, told ISBnews that enquiries now concern large capacity for delivery by 2028, and that investment potential alone is not enough without secured energy and a predictable connection schedule.
The grid numbers explain the standstill. Stoen Operator, the Warsaw distribution company, told WysokieNapiecie.pl in May 2026 that it had connected 12 data centres with about 160 MW and signed contracts for more than 500 MW on top. Rzeczpospolita reports that free connection capacity around Warsaw fell by 40 per cent in two years. At transmission level, PSE had issued conditions for about 6 GW against applications of 150 to 200 GW, with no connection agreement signed by spring 2026.
Since then the queue has thinned. After the energy law amendment UC84 took effect on 30 April 2026 with an application fee and a deposit on the connection charge, PSE told Gramwzielone.pl in August that roughly a dozen data centre applications remained, spread across the country rather than around Warsaw. PSE’s draft grid plan assumes about 3.5 GW of data centre load by 2036 and 5 GW by 2040, and the named projects all sit outside the capital: Choczewo on the Baltic, 260 MW in Konin, up to 200 MW in Bielsko-Biała.
The price of power: 2.3 million versus 1 million euros per megawatt
Kearney’s figures give the comparison a price tag. Powered land in Germany trades at about 2.25 to 2.30 million euros per megawatt. In Poland, which Kearney groups with Spain, Portugal and Italy, the range is 600,000 to 1.5 million euros, so a grid-ready site costs half or less of what it costs outside Frankfurt. The same analysis puts a new 10 to 50 MW facility at 10 to 15 million euros per megawatt, up to 35 million euros for GPU-dense AI halls.
Our own arithmetic on those ranges: at a build cost of 12.5 million euros per megawatt, powered land at 2.3 million euros is roughly 15 per cent of the combined outlay in Germany and roughly 7 per cent at 1 million euros in Poland. The land discount is real, but it does not decide the case. Time to power and absorption risk do. In Frankfurt, 83 per cent pre-letting on 411 MW under construction puts the risk in delivery, grid and permits, not in leasing. In Warsaw, 11.49 per cent vacancy gives tenants pricing power in the existing stock, while new large projects carry the full connection risk. As Matyas Fazekas of Cushman & Wakefield put it, the market is becoming more selective rather than more speculative.
What this means for investors
- Frankfurt is a landlord’s market with delivery risk, not leasing risk. With 1.65 per cent vacancy and 83 per cent of construction pre-let, the question is whether grid and permit arrive on time, not whether a tenant will.
- Warsaw’s 11.49 per cent is a colocation figure, not a demand signal. About 16 MW of legacy halls stand empty while gigawatt-scale requests queue at PSE. An existing asset and a new campus are two different underwriting exercises.
- Cheaper powered land in Poland does not mean faster power. The entry price is attractive, but the deposit regime has cut the queue to about a dozen serious applicants and no transmission-level connection agreement had been signed by mid-2026.
- Berlin and Brandenburg are the middle ground. Berlin shows 3.5 per cent vacancy and 448 MW planned, with 888 MW announced in Brandenburg: German tenant demand with more grid headroom than Frankfurt, as set out in our analysis of Germany’s eastward pipeline.
- Separate grid-secured from grid-hoped in every pipeline. Only capacity with a signed connection agreement should carry a valuation; the rest is an option, as we argued when Warsaw hit the grid ceiling.
Prime East and PE Property Solutions work on exactly this boundary: site and grid connection assessment in Germany and Poland, technical due diligence on existing and planned facilities, structuring of operator and lease models, and transaction support from first screening to closing. Where a pipeline figure is only an application, we say so before capital is committed.
Conclusion
The Frankfurt and Warsaw data centre markets are not two points on the same curve. Frankfurt has demand it cannot house and pays 2.3 million euros per megawatt to wait for power. Warsaw has 11.49 per cent of its colocation stock empty while gigawatt projects line up elsewhere in Poland. Vacancy, pipeline and land price only make sense once read against the grid. In both countries, the connection agreement is the asset. Everything else is a building.
Talk to us
Are you weighing a Frankfurt development against a Polish campus, or holding a site whose grid position you want verified before you commit? We assess connection capacity, absorption risk and structure for both markets. Contact our team at prime-east.com/contact to discuss your project.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. All figures are based on publicly available sources.
Sources
- Cushman & Wakefield: EMEA Data Centre Update H1 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield: EMEA Data Centre H1 2026 Update, market pages Frankfurt, Berlin and Warsaw (PDF)
- ISBnews / gospodarka.sos.pl: C&W: Moc warszawskich data center sięgnęła 159 MW na koniec II kw.; w budowie tylko 5 MW
- CEO.com.pl: Centra danych w Polsce 2026. Warszawa ma 159 MW mocy
- Eurobuild CEE: EMEA data centre capacity exceeds 12.1 GW as energy constraints slow growth
- JLL: AI boom redraws Europe’s data centre map as power access overtakes location
- Digital-Magazin.de: Rechenzentren: Der Netzanschluss bremst den KI-Ausbau (Kearney analysis)
- MIT-Blog: Kearney-Report: Rechenzentrumsflächen in Deutschland kosten bis zu viermal so viel wie in Skandinavien
- Gramwzielone.pl: Prawdziwych chętnych na centra danych w Polsce jest kilkanaście, nie setki
- WysokieNapiecie.pl: Po fotowoltaice i magazynach energii sieciowi spekulanci pokochali centra danych
- Rzeczpospolita: Polska ma jedną trzecią mocy centrów danych w regionie. To dopiero początek boomu
- IT Finanzmagazin / Bitkom: Rechenzentren in Deutschland: KI treibt das Wachstum
- Bundesministerium für Digitales und Staatsmodernisierung: Zwischenmonitoring Rechenzentrumsstrategie
- Warsaw Business Journal / CBRE: Data Centers market could reach 500 MW by 2030. Poland central to expansion
