Poland was pitched to data centre investors as the lower-cost alternative to Germany. In September the 2027 baseload contract on the Polish power exchange averaged 556 złoty per megawatt hour, 12 per cent more than a month earlier. Data centre power costs are now an underwriting question, not a footnote.
A 12 per cent jump in one month
On the Polish Power Exchange (TGE), the baseload contract for delivery in 2027 (BASE_Y-27) traded at a volume-weighted average of 555.77 złoty per megawatt hour in September. That was 60.25 złoty more than in August, WNP reports from the exchange’s monthly data. The day-ahead market averaged 666.68 złoty, up 83.02 złoty on the month. At the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate of 4.3775 złoty per euro on 9 October, the 2027 contract equals roughly €127.
The move did not come out of nowhere. According to Kamil Krasowski of Enea Trading, quoted by WNP, the same contract averaged around 438 złoty in May and more than 495 złoty in August, and on 14 September it came close to 586 złoty. Traders point to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has lifted gas prices, and to carbon allowances trading 5 to 10 per cent above last year’s level.
For a load that runs around the clock the arithmetic is simple. Every 100 MW of continuous consumption means 876,000 MWh a year. The September increase alone adds about 53 million złoty, or some €12 million, to an unhedged annual power bill.
The pitch and the bill
As recently as November 2025, JLL argued that Poland offered competitive conditions compared with countries such as Germany, where energy prices are higher. At the time the firm counted about 100 facilities with a combined 213 MW, a further 296 MW under construction, and expected 500 MW by 2030.
Investors now hear a different story. In Rzeczpospolita at the end of September, Jacek Giziński of DLA Piper named three arguments that keep Poland off the lists of priority markets: relatively high electricity prices, grid balancing problems and a high share of high-emission generation. Energetyka24, citing Eurostat, puts the average net electricity price for industry in the second half of 2025 at about €170 per MWh in Poland against about €130 in Germany.
The picture depends on where one measures. For mid-sized business consumers (500 to 2,000 MWh a year), Eurostat ranks Germany as the third most expensive country in the EU at €22.64 per 100 kWh, against an EU average of €18.37. On the forward market the two countries are close: ZfK reported the German 2027 baseload contract at €104.50 on 15 July, the highest level in almost three years, and the supplier Schnellstrom quotes €119.90 for 1 September. The wholesale price is no longer where Poland is cheaper. What matters is what sits on top of it.
What sits on top of the energy price
The largest regulated item is the capacity fee (opłata mocowa), which funds Poland’s capacity market. The energy regulator URE set it at 0.2194 złoty per kWh for 2026, or 219.40 złoty per MWh, after 141.20 złoty in 2025. That is an increase of 55 per cent. It is charged on electricity drawn on working days between 7:00 and 21:59.
Here data centres hold a structural advantage. Consumers with the flattest load profile, where consumption inside and outside that window differs by less than 5 per cent, pay with a coefficient of 0.17, which is about 37 złoty per MWh. For 100 MW of flat load and roughly 250 working days, that is the difference between about 14 million and more than 80 million złoty a year. An operator that ramps up a campus slowly, runs test loads or shifts consumption with battery storage should check which category it actually falls into.
The second item is shape. In September the intraday market averaged 1,344 złoty per MWh in the hour from 20:00 and 257 złoty in the hour from 13:00, Gramwzielone reports. That is a ratio of more than five to one. A constant load buys every hour, including the expensive evening ones.
PPAs and the curve beyond 2027
Operators respond with long-term contracts. The Data4 group has signed five PPAs with European partners in two years, according to Rzeczpospolita. One of them is a ten-year agreement with TotalEnergies for 610 GWh from 30 MW of new wind and solar capacity in Spain, delivered as a constant-profile product. Whether such a contract hedges the Polish price or mainly delivers guarantees of origin depends on its structure. A LevelTen Energy report summarised by Gramwzielone found that corporate PPA prices in Poland were on average higher than in Germany and Sweden, and expected data centres to be among the largest buyers.
Demand will not make this easier. Polish data centres use 1.7 to 1.8 TWh a year today, about 1 per cent of national consumption. The grid operator PSE assumes 17.4 TWh by 2036, roughly ten times as much, and has issued connection conditions for more than 6 GW, as we described in our analysis of Poland’s grid queue.
There is a counterweight. Anna Szczodra of KPMG Law notes in WNP that the contracts for 2028 to 2030 trade below the 2027 contract, which she attributes to offshore wind entering the system. Baltic Power, the joint venture of Orlen and Northland Power with up to 1.2 GW, delivered its first electricity to the grid in July. The market is pricing 2027 as a peak, not as a new plateau.
What this means for investors
- Underwrite the power bill, not the headline. Energy price, capacity fee, distribution charges and balancing costs need to be modelled hour by hour for the actual load ramp, not taken from a national average.
- Check the pass-through. Where power is passed through to tenants, the operator’s margin is protected, but the tenant’s total cost decides the choice of location. Where it is not, the price risk sits in net operating income.
- Hedge beyond the front year. With 2028 to 2030 trading below 2027, the timing and tenor of hedges and PPAs become a value driver. A solar-heavy PPA leaves the evening hours open.
- Protect the flat profile. The 0.17 coefficient on the capacity fee is worth tens of millions of złoty a year per 100 MW. Phasing, storage and on-site generation should be designed with the category thresholds in mind.
- Location still starts with the grid. PSE plans around 5,000 km of new 400 kV lines by 2036 for about 66 billion złoty, and roughly two thirds of the programme relates to the shift of investment to the north of the country. That strengthens sites beyond Warsaw, whose grid ceiling we have already described.
This intersection of real estate, engineering and energy is exactly where Prime East operates through its dedicated division PE Property Solutions: site and grid connection assessment, technical due diligence, structuring of operator and lease models, and transaction support across Germany and Poland.
Conclusion
Poland remains a growth market, but no longer on the strength of its power price. The jump in the 2027 contract shows how much a data centre’s return depends on procurement, load profile and levies. Investors who structure these three elements early can contain the disadvantage and use the advantage of a flat load. Those who underwrite on the national average are buying a risk that is not in the information memorandum.
Talk to us
Are you planning a data centre investment, or do you hold a site with grid potential in Germany or Poland? Prime East assesses sites, grid connection status and power cost structures, and brings investors, operators and landowners together. Contact our team for a confidential discussion of your investment or project enquiry.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. All figures are based on publicly available sources.
Sources
- WNP: Electricity and gas prices for next year have risen sharply (TGE data for September 2026)
- Gramwzielone: Electricity prices on the Polish Power Exchange went up
- WNP: Electricity is getting more expensive fast, and it will show on bills in 2027
- URE: Information No. 58/2025 on capacity fee rates for 2026
- Gramwzielone: The capacity fee returns to bills, the rate for 2025
- Rzeczpospolita: Not only power and land, what could stop the data centre boom in Poland
- Energetyka24: Poland has the most expensive energy for industry in Europe
- Eurostat: Non-household electricity prices in the second half of 2025
- JLL: A hot market in a cool climate
- ZfK: Front-year contract approaches three-year high
- Schnellstrom: Electricity price 2027, why companies should watch the forward market now
- Gramwzielone: Genuine applicants for data centres in Poland number a dozen or so, not hundreds
- WNP: Data centres to be powered by renewables, ten-year agreement signed
- Gramwzielone: Corporate PPA prices in Poland (LevelTen Energy report)
- Energy Global: Baltic Power offshore wind farm delivers first electricity to Polish grid
- PSE: Draft transmission grid development plan for 2027 to 2036
- NBP: Average euro exchange rates, table A
